Market regime change or more of the same?

December 18, 2009 by Boderat

The S&P500 has been bounded in a horizontal box for six weeks…

…the dollar seems to have turned around…

which all suggests the market might have turned a corner (or at least exited the nine month rally).

The three year chart also suggests we the S&P might be feeling resistance…

…while the dollar could have bounced off of support three weeks ago (it might see resistance here)…

…and all the time gold keeps climbing…

.

…as does Europe?

It’s curious that in terms of gold, Europe has not really gone anywhere for two years, except down…

…which is almost true of the dollar in terms of gold which no longer looks bullish (yet)…

…and the S&P seems to not gained any ground during the so called rally?

Eurodollar index vs the dollar index has really been moving but think this double counts the dollar…

…and for completeness, the S&P vs the dollar index hides the recent change in behavior?

The story in terms of gold is most interesting. The bump up against resistance could be due to gold bouncing off of support (again) or to the S&P meeting a long term overhead down trend. Or both. Any of which might well please the bears…

Probable sell signal

October 13, 2009 by Boderat

Yesterdays high represented a 100% retracement of the previous drop. The amplitude is right at the median so we should expect to see something of order 4-6% drop from here.